Statistics for climate dynamics

The unit will discuss some basic statistical methods for analysing climate dynamics with the aim of understanding the physical mechanisms driving the observed structures (statistics). The unit will start with a discussion on the basics of probability theory, time series analysis, stochastic models and multivariate data (pattern) analysis. It will then focus on the principles of decision making in statistical analysis (significance tests), which is followed by a discussion of the pitfalls and general strategies in statistical analysis. The unit will not focus on deriving statistical parameters, but rather will emphasise how these methods can be applied and will discuss the potential pitfalls in interpreting statistical results.